2027: Why Opposition Can’t Defeat Tinubu – Presidency

The Presidency has stated that the opposition coalition would not be able to effectively challenge the reelection of President Bola Tinubu in the oncoming 2027 Presidential election considering the reality on ground, ambition and egos of the arrowheads, zoning arrangement, formidable structure and trust deficit in the polity.

Presidential spokesman, Tunde Rahman, in a piece analysing the recent rapprochement between Peter Obi and the Oyo state governor, Seyi Makinde, also stated that the opposition coalition could only threaten Tinubu’s reelection if a consensus could be forged with one stepping down for the other and at least ten governors, currently running on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and others forming alliance with Tinubu, could defect to the opposition coalition.

Rahman, in his analysis of Obi’s attendance of Makinde ‘s inauguration of his campaign office in Abuja on Sunday, said a possible alliance between the two opposition figures at this point would face four hurdles.

He said “The first is the incumbency advantage. President Tinubu controls the awesome federal machinery. That lever means a lot. He has many achievements under the Renewed Hope Agenda that will work in his favour: improving and stabilising the economy with key positive indicators; many legacy roads and infrastructure projects; strategic federal appointments; student loans; the CrediCorp programme; and the CNG initiative, among others.

“The second and closely related point is that beating an incumbent in Nigeria is historically very hard. President Goodluck Jonathan, who was defeated by the APC coalition in 2015, is the only incumbent to have lost reelection in Nigeria’s history. And this was done by a coalition powered by late President Muhammadu Buhari and President Tinubu. Can the opposition reenact 2015 in 2027?

“Third, party structure matters. The APC presently controls 31 states and has the largest grassroots party structure. Governors in the few other states not controlled by the party have declared support for President Tinubu’s reelection.These include Governors Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra State in APGA, Labour Party’s Alex Otti in Abia and Accord Party’s Ademola Adeleke of Osun State. Some in the opposition may scoff at this point, arguing that the people, not the governors, will decide. That still does not diminish the governors’ influence.

Lastly, the opposition’s new maths is confounding. According to them, Tinubu won the election with 37% of the vote. That is the opposition’s opening lines. They will then say: Atiku + Obi/Kwankwaso + Makinde will provide the theoretical numbers to defeat the incumbent.

Yes, in 2023, the opposition parties ran separately, splitting the anti-APC vote, thus losing out and handing President Tinubu victory. In 2027, they must run together if they hope to pull any surprise. This is easier said than done.”

On what the opposition coalition could latch on to campaign against Tinubu’s re-election, Rahman stated: “The 2027 election will not be won on personalities alone. It will also be won on some kitchen-table issues, of which the APC needs to be wary.

“The elephant in the room is the cost of living. If food, transport, and electricity are still perceived as high by Q4 2026, “we did the hard part” may not move much. The opposition will run on “Tinubu made life harder,” which is what they want people to believe.

“Security is the other critical issue. The government and security agencies must maintain the present apparently favourable security situation. Any major security breakdown in the North or Middle Belt will be weaponised.”

On possible scenarios that could further make the opposition coalition to rattle Tinubu’s re-election, Ramah stated:.”…the opposition can only pose a threat if three things happen. The first is one-ticket. That is, a consensus presidential candidate emerges now, not later.